Welcome to the new weekly column for the 2024 season, Monday Morning Overreaction (MMOR). As the name suggests, I’ll purposefully act like what we saw this week was some valid trend that’s indicative of how the rest of the season will go, rather than a semi-random one-week sample.

Apart from the obvious entertainment value, it’ll be instructive to catalog the weekly swings and trace a team’s trajectory throughout the season. For example, despite starting last season as an assumed laughingstock, the Texans ended up as a playoff team, but the vibes didn’t change overnight.

Here are the Week 1 overreactions, loosely ranked in descending order of conviction.

The Thers got worse: Hard to believe after a 2-win season but a 30-0 deficit before halftime did not match the offseason of supposed optimism and improvement. CAR had 4 20-point losses last year, but this 37-point loss is worse than any last year.

• This would be worst for: DBB, 3 CAR wins

Another slow start from the Bengals: The Bengals started 1-3 last year (before winning 4 in a row) and 2-3 in 2022. A home loss to the poopy Patriots is right on par for early-season Bungles

• This would be worst for: No one, the first CIN game with different picks is Week 5 (BAL @ CIN)

Dak is overpaid: He signed a 4-year, $240M contract to become the highest-paid NFL player ever. The dude has a (checks notes) 2-5 playoff record. The Boys won big today but Dak had 179 passing yards

• This is worst for: All Cowboys fans. And RAS (14 DAL wins remaining)

The Cards are frisky: Josh Allen was leaping over homies, but the Cards were frisky, with a 2-TD lead early and a chance to win it late

• This would be best for: DBB, 9 ARI wins

Caleb Williams is not the guy (yet): Da Bears not only won Caleb’s debut but did so by overcoming a 17-0 deficit. However, they scored on a blocked punt and a pick-6, so Williams played a small part in the comeback and had less than 100 yards passing, the lowest in the NFL Week 1

• This would be worst for: Big Cat, obviously. But also TPP/RAS (11 CHI wins)

The Vikes don’t suck: Tom nailed the Week 1 MIN pick. But he has the Vikings winning exactly 0 games the rest of the year. But it’s also highly likely that NYG are just truly awful

• This would be worst for: TPP, 0 MIN wins remaining

The Steelers won’t score a TD: Justin Fields and George Pickens showed some chemistry and TJ Watt was dominant, but it only netted 6 FGs in the W over ATL

• This would be best for: TPP (2 PIT wins), RAS (4 PIT wins remaining)

OBB Scoreboard Overreaction

It’s week 1. Let’s not overreact. BUT the player with the lowest score after week 1 has lost (or tied for last) in 5 of 6 years. The one exception: 2022, when I led Tom 11-6 and ended up losing myself.

All-Time Week 1 High: 13 (Tom 2019) All-Time Week 1 Low: 6 (Tom 2022)

Song of Week 1: No Love. Surprise outcomes happen in the NFL, especially early in the year as we digest the changes from the offseason. The potential of Jordan Love’s prolonged absence would have the biggest long-term impact on the season compared to some early season variation